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How Do You Fit Big Australia Into Small Housing and Infrastructure?

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I asked the Treasury Department how they got immigration forecasts for the year so horribly wrong when they were already a third of the way through the year? In October 2022, the Government estimated total net overseas migration for the year July 2022 to June 2023 to be 235,000. The actual arrivals for 2022-23 ended up at 518,000. It’s hard to understand how Treasury was this wrong about those 12 months when they were already 4 months through them.

This is just more proof the government’s immigration program is totally out of control. Minister Gallagher is wrong when she claims this flood immigration is a benefit to Australia. Right now immigration is choking our country, making the housing problem, the cost of living crisis, energy shortages, the crisis in healthcare and other essential services even worse.

Only One Nation will make sure Australians get a roof over their heads first.

Transcript

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you to the officials for being here today. The 2022-23 budget, delivered in October 2022, predicted that net overseas migration would be 235,000 people for the financial year 2022-23. Can I ask whether the Treasury’s definition of net overseas migration differs from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ definition of overseas migration? 

Ms Reinhardt: Sorry; can you just— 

Senator ROBERTS: Do you have the same definition of net— 

Ms Reinhardt: Yes, we do. 

Senator ROBERTS: I want to go to your department’s immigration forecasts. I notice that in the October 2022 budget papers, four months into that financial year, you were predicting net overseas migration at 235,000 people for the year. Instead, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says Australia had 737,000 migrant arrivals, for a net overseas migration of 518,000—well over double what you said. 

Ms Reinhardt: In the budget, we had a figure for net overseas migration of 400,000. The MYEFO had 510,000, and I recognise that that is a significant miss. I would, however, flag a couple of things around that. The first is that the UK in the period between March and November last year had to double their NOM forecast, and New Zealand had a similar adjustment. There has been a significant uptick in student arrivals post-COVID in most countries—Canada, Australia, UK and New Zealand. There was, I guess, a catch-up that was much faster than any of those countries predicted. We are still below where we would otherwise have been had COVID not occurred. But I think you’re right in saying those forecasts could have been better, if that’s the point you’re making. I would say we are in company. I don’t say it’s good company, but we are in company, and that is something we do need to look at. The other point I’d make is that there have been some really significant changes that have been introduced in the last six months. They’re around closing off the pandemic event visa; introducing really significant integrity changes around student visas; looking at ways of targeting better temporary skilled migration; and indexing theTSMIT, the temporary skilled migration income threshold. We would expect those changes to have quite a substantial impact on arrivals and the NOM numbers. 

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you. I’ll stay with you, Ms Reinhardt. I think you talked about catching up on the pre-COVID-era statistics. My understanding is that we had 1.9 million people on visas before the COVID, and by October 2023 we had 2.3 million—we’d already caught up, well and truly, at the start of that year. I can’t tell you which group of visas— 

Ms Reinhardt: We haven’t fully caught up, but, in terms of visa numbers, I’ll see if my colleague— 

Senator ROBERTS: No, we’ve more than caught up in categories of working visas. 

Ms Horvat: No. 

Ms Reinhardt: No, not in terms of the stock of— 

Senator ROBERTS: In working visas? 

Ms Horvat: We look at net overseas migration in total— 

Senator ROBERTS: I’ve shifted to working visas. 

Ms Horvat: but Ms Reinhardt’s statement is correct, as we have not caught up to pre-COVID for total net overseas migration. 

Senator Gallagher: But Treasury don’t look at what particular visa type you’re on; that would be a matter for Home Affairs. 

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you for pointing that out. Nonetheless, this huge increase in people has a huge impact on the people who are already here. What happens to the prices of houses, rentals, accommodation generally, energy, groceries—cost of living? There’s a huge impact on all of those things when we have so many people flooding into the country. 

Ms Reinhardt: I’m really not best placed to answer the broader inflation questions, but I would say that net overseas migration has really significant positive impacts for Australia. That’s been shown in the analysis year after year. We have maintained a very low unemployment rate in Australia whilst having pretty long-term migration to Australia for several hundred years, and that’s been a really important factor to our economic success. It has also, in recent times, not resulted in any substantial uptick in unemployment, and at the same time we’ve seen really high participation rates for Australians. So I would push back on the idea that that is an absolute negative for Australians, as it’s delivered substantial economic benefit to Australians. 

Senator ROBERTS: It would be, potentially, if it were done in a carefully calculated way and with infrastructure spending to match, but we haven’t build a dam in how many decades for water supply? 

Senator Gallagher: We’re moving into a different area. 

Senator ROBERTS: That’s right. I’m directing my question to you, Minister. This has a huge impact on people’s livelihoods. 

Senator Gallagher: The evidence that you’ve been given is that migration to this country has supported economic growth across the country for many years. We agree that we needed to tighten up some of the arrangements that we’re seeing, particularly around international students and some of the loopholes that were being used—some of the behavioural responses post COVID—and that work is being done. Because of those reforms, there will be 180,000 fewer people over the forward estimates than there would’ve been if we had left the situation unattended to, but there’s a huge amount of work. 

Senator ROBERTS: That’s still a large number. 

Senator Gallagher: It comes down to, I think, 250,000 in the final year of the forward estimates. The work that the Minister for Home Affairs is doing in the migration space has been complex. She inherited a lot of issues in that department—that’s probably putting it politely—and we’re working through them bit by bit. But those reforms are in place. The issues that you raise around infrastructure are real. I don’t think you can blame all of those, again, on overseas migration to this country. Infrastructure requires long-term planning. It involves investments from states and territories. Some of the pressures we’re seeing in housing supply haven’t happened overnight or in the last two years. It’s been a build-up over a much longer period of time, when we weren’t experiencing those high levels of overseas migration that we’ve seen in the last two years. It’s more complex than that. But, yes, we have to work on housing supply; we have to ensure that we’re building infrastructure that’s right for people in cities, towns and regions across Australia; we’ve got to fix the migration system; and we’ve got to make sure that it works for everybody.  

Senator ROBERTS: That’s my point, Minister: just adding more people without doing all the other creates a problem. Sure, it increases economic growth, which looks good in a book or on a whiteboard— 

Senator Gallagher: It supports jobs and incomes in this country, so it is interlinked. What I’m saying is, we will always want to have a migration program. We want to attract people to this country. We want them to live here and come from any country around the world. There are good social and economic reasons to have an approach like that, but, at the same time, you have to be looking after your back garden as well. You have to be making sure the infrastructure is there and that you’re building the housing, and we’re doing all of those things. 

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you, Chair. 

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Labor is Asleep at the Wheel When it Comes to Illegal Immigration

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I questioned Home Affairs about the detainees released into the community. As many as 149 detainees have been released and none have been returned to immigration detention. Home Affairs is unaware if any have been arrested for crimes in the states and territories. 113 are being electronically monitored.

A list of 26 visa conditions have been imposed on these people to maximise the safety of the community, such as curfews and notification of changes to addresses. None have a history of terrorism. There are a number of prosecutions already underway regarding the release of these detainees, brought about as a result of the high court decision.

The government has made zero effort to lock any of the detainees back up, despite rushing through emergency legislation last year. 24 detainees have committed offences in the Australian community as a result.

Transcript

Senator ROBERTS: This is in regard to the High Court decision releasing detainees. How many detainees have now been released from custody due to the High Court decision? 

Ms Foster : It is 149. 

Senator ROBERTS: How many of those released detainees have been returned to custody? 

Ms Foster : None have been returned to immigration detention. The question of custody is a different matter where there are offences that might put them into the state and territory system. 

Mr Outram : That being the case, I don’t have that information, because the states and territories, of course, are responsible for arrest, charge and prosecution of state-based offences. I would need to check and take on notice whether we were aware of any cases where, for example, somebody may have been charged and bail refused. Off the top of my head I don’t have that information with me, but I’ll take it on notice. 

Senator ROBERTS: How many of the released detainees are being closely monitored, and in what circumstances are they being monitored? 

Ms Holben : Of the current cohort, 113 are being electronically monitored. 

Senator ROBERTS: Remotely monitored? 

Ms Holben : Electronically monitored. 

Senator Watt: Am I right that there are other forms of monitoring that are occurring as well? 

Ms Holben : That’s correct. Within the visa itself there are 26 conditions. One of those conditions is that a person could be monitored by an electronic device. There are other conditions that are placed on the person which entail reporting, in terms of daily reporting to the department, also notifying a change of address and circumstance. There are 26 conditions that are imposed on this particular cohort. 

Senator ROBERTS: Is it possible to get that list and the conditions under which each are applied? 

Ms Holben : Yes, we can do that on notice. 

Senator ROBERTS: We have seen the minister acknowledging the gravity of the situation, but how safe is the Australian community from immigrants with a known history of terrorism or criminal activity? 

Ms Foster : This cohort does not relate to anyone with a terrorist history. You have just heard the ABF describe the regime, which is designed to maximise protection of the community, of those people that the High Court decision required us to release. 

Senator ROBERTS: I understand that. But my understanding is also that the states have prosecuted at least three. Is that the case? Or arrested at least three? 

Mr Outram : There are a number of cases— 

Senator ROBERTS: You’ll take it on notice, I assume. 

Mr Outram : I will take it on notice. Again, the states and territories are running prosecutions. They may decide to drop the case. There will be different stages. We will take it on notice. 

Senator ROBERTS: That’s what I was referring to. You’ve already taken it on notice. I’m not expecting you to know the details, but how safe is the Australian community from immigrants with a known criminal history? Are you monitoring them? 

Ms Foster : If we are speaking about the cohort that had to be released as a result of the High Court decision, the process that the commissioner and the deputy commissioner have been describing is all about putting in place conditions to maximise the safety of the community. And that goes to the sort of things that they were talking about, restrictions on their visa, monitoring— 

Senator ROBERTS: How confident are you that people are safe? 

Ms Foster : We are putting all of the elements in place that are within our power legislatively to provide for community safety. I’m very confident that we are doing all we can. 

Senator ROBERTS: Do you need any additional legislative powers? 

Ms Foster : Not at this time. 

Senator Watt: Can I just add—I don’t know if you were here when we talked about this—many of the actions that are being taken to protect the community, for example installing electronic bracelet or a curfew or something else like that, those decisions are being made on the recommendation of the Community Protection Board, which includes former police commissioners and corrections commissioners. We have attempted to ensure that the community is well protected by seeking the advice of people with a vast amount of experience in this space. 

Ms Foster : And draws very heavily on state and territory law enforcement agencies, for whom this is their bread and butter. 

Senator ROBERTS: So you meet with them, listen to them and involve them in the process? 

Mr Outram : The day after the High Court decision was handed down, the law enforcement coordination group was stood up, which is each state and territory police force or service with the Australian Federal Police and ourselves, walking through these cases weekly, pushing information to each other about these cases so if circumstances change, because of course some people may be subject to state and territory regimes—reporting regimes, parole requirements, bail requirements, domestic violence orders, those sorts of things. So there’s a combination of controls, not just the controls that we apply at the Commonwealth level. We also, of course, refer offences under the Migration Act to the AFP for investigation. But that coordination between states and territories and the Commonwealth is really important. It adds another layer of protection for the community. 

Senator ROBERTS: So immigration—federal—is responsible for it, and law enforcement and states are responsible. I get that. 

Mr Outram : We’re sharing the effort here because there are a whole range of different laws, powers and regimes that intersect with each other. 

Ms Foster : The mechanism that the commissioner established and is running ensures that things aren’t dropping between the cracks—that we are making sure that we know what effort needs to be applied, whether that needs to be by state or territory or by the Commonwealth, and we’re talking about it and sharing information relating to it. 

Senator ROBERTS: Going to the root cause, Ms Foster, what vetting was done of each of the released detainees to determine their risk profile when living in the community? 

Ms Foster : The High Court decision required us to release the affected detainees as soon as we formed a view that that release was legally necessary. The process that then was established was the one that the commissioner has been describing, which is to provide all of the information we have about those individuals who were required to be released to state and territory counterparts so that appropriate risk could be put in place and also so that visa conditions could be imposed, which would give the highest possible level of assurance of safety to the community. 

Senator ROBERTS: Has there been any review of the immigration vetting in the first place? 

Ms Foster : If you mean the granting of the visas— 

Senator ROBERTS: Yes. 

Ms Foster : We have been looking at our system end to end to make sure that we are looking at every touchpoint so that we can prevent having people who are going to cause risk. It may be that there are ways that we can relook at, say, the granting of visas in particular cohorts or cases. 

Senator ROBERTS: That’s what I was getting at. 

Ms Foster : So we’re looking at, as I said, the whole process. 

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