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Question Time – COVID 19

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Today I asked the government questions about why they have chosen to use the Mitigation strategy to deal with the Corona Virus rather than the Suppression method

Mitigation, involves voluntary isolation and trying to reduce the impact like Italy and the USA, yet this has the potential that very soon we will overwhelm our healthcare system.

Suppression, is the enforced isolation of the population like in Taiwan recently. It involves aggressive testing and then managed treatment – not only has significantly lower fatalities, it has much, much less impact on economy.

Senator Cash’s first answer showed no understanding of the two vastly different strategies available to national governments.

Second answer: reportedly South Koreans test everyone’s temperature when entering buildings/workplaces and if high temp they get tested for CV. Then if fail the test, isolated. If pass the test go to work with a note saying high temp is not due to CV.

Additionally I asked why Australia’s hospital beds: in the 55 years from 1961 to 2015, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people in Australia fell from 12 to 3.8, a decrease of two-thirds.

In Italy, the number fell from nine to 3.5. In South Korea, though, it has risen from less than one to almost 12. In Japan it increased from nine to 13. What will be the impact of high immigration numbers on coronavirus’s potential for overwhelming our hospital system?

The signs are that a senior minister does not understand the core issues that are in play. She parrots the stock answers from the Department.

There is data now that shows we need to question everything and get the data that is now becoming available around the world.

Transcript

  • Thank you, Mr. President, my question is to the minister representing the Minister for Health. Has the minister gathered data to compare the two different virus management approaches being mitigation, used in Italy, France, and U.S.A. and elsewhere, or suppression, practised successfully in Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore? In asking this question, I note that South Korea first let things get out of hand like Italy, and then, through rigorous testing, specific isolation and treatment, the South Koreans quickly brought it under control at minimal cost and with minimal disruption to their economy. Has the minister gathered data to compare the two different virus management approaches, being mitigation, that has failed, and suppression that is proving to be so effective and successful?
  • [President] The minister representing the Minister for Health, Senator Cash.
  • Thank you, Mr. President, and I thank Senator Roberts for his question. In relation to the gathering of data itself, I will take that on notice, but in terms of the Australian Government’s approach, Senator Roberts, I’ll reconfirm what the Minister for Finance, the Leader of the Government, has stated. This is an unprecedented challenge and it has required an unprecedented response. In terms of the Australian Government’s response, you’d be aware, Australia is well-placed with a world-class health system. We also have a health system and health emergency responses that are flexible, they are scalable, and they are able to respond effectively to the evolving situation. Australia has been responding to rapid changes in the epidemiology of COVID-19 and activated and is implementing the Australian Health Sector Emergency Response plan for Novel Coronavirus, which as you now know, is known as the COVID-19 Plan. Australia, because of the response that we have taken, is well-placed to respond to ill travellers and those at risk of contracting infection with border isolation, surveillance, and contact tracing mechanisms already in place. You’ll also be aware that a 24/7 national coronavirus health information line is available. for the benefit of Hansard, on 1800 020 080, and what this health line actually does is provides health and situation information on the COVID-19 outbreak. Senator Roberts, I would also point out, this is very, very important, the Australian Government is also aware of COVID-19 disinformation, misinformation, and scams–
  • Order, Senator Cash.
  • Targeting Australians.
  • [President] Time for the answer has expired. Senator Roberts, a supplementary question.
  • Thank you, Mr. President. Minister, if the Government adopted rigorous testing, combined with strict isolation for people with the virus, and for vulnerable people, then most every day Australians could return to work with minimal disruption to them or our economy. Has the minister modelled this, and will you consider changing Australia’s mitigation strategy that is failing disastrously in Italy and wherever it is used, and instead adopt a rigorous testing and suppression strategy, reportedly highly successful in South Korea and elsewhere?
  • [President] Senator Cash.
  • Thank you, Mr. President. Senator Roberts, to confront the threat of Coronavirus the Australian Government is ensuring, we know who has it, and where they are. Australia actually, as the Minister for Health has said often, has one of the highest Coronavirus testing rates in the world. I’ll just repeat that, one of the highest Coronavirus testing rates in the world with over 135,000 tests, they have been completed so far. In terms of the outcome of those tests, for every 100 tests completed, 99 have returned a negative result. I’ll say that again, for every 100 tests completed, 99 have returned a negative result. And that is why it is important that testing is only undertaken where the patient meets the national guidelines for testing.
  • [President] Order, Senator Cash. Senator Roberts, a final supplementary question.
  • Minister, a second associated factor, hospital beds. In the 55 years from 1961 to 2015, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 people in Australia fell from 12 to 3.8, a decrease of two-thirds. In Italy, the number fell from nine to 3.5. In South Korea, though, it has risen from less than one to almost 12. Japan increased from nine to 13. What would be the impact of high immigration numbers on coronavirus’ potential for overwhelming of our hospital system?
  • [President] Senator Cash.
  • Well again, Senator Roberts, the Australian Government has put in place incredibly strict procedures at the border. You will actually be aware that we have taken a number of decisions in relation to those who are now able to enter Australia, and in fact, a number of the states themselves, and Queensland being the most recent, have also now put in place very, very strict procedures in relation to who is able to enter the particular state, and if they do, in terms of the self-isolation that they are now required to undertake. So, Senator Roberts, in answer to your question, the Australian Government has taken a comprehensive response to the issues that you have raised.
  • [President] Senator Antic.
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Letter to the PM: COVID-19 Strategy

Dear Prime Minister

RE: COVID-19

Your Treasury staff are commended for the Coronavirus legislation package your government presented to the Senate on Monday 23 March 2020. 

With the enormity of the challenge our country faces and the urgency to present your government’s COVID-19 package we anticipated written legislation may have had a few ragged edges yet our office is impressed with your product’s quality. 

Although we disagree with some aspects of your Coronavirus support package, in the interests of ensuring swift support to the people of Australia whose lives have been jolted through loss of income we voted to support it in full. 

We acknowledge that there is no manual on how to respond to the serious health and security crisis now confronting all Australians. The situation is dynamic and initially you needed to act promptly based on minimal data. 

Fourthly and most importantly, overseas experience has now produced a large and growing yet still incomplete body of data, evidence and experience. Countries like Italy, France, Spain and possibly the USA and UK are floundering with healthcare systems either overwhelmed or facing overwhelm. They seem to have focussed on balancing human health against economic impact and in doing so have seriously compromised both. 

Countries such as Italy aiming to mitigate the virus’ impact and to “flatten the curve” are floundering and their people dying needlessly in droves. 

It seems that South Korea started on Italy’s path to disaster yet reportedly quickly learned from initial experience. It instituted massive body temperature testing of its people as a front-line filter to testing for COVID-19 that in turn led to isolation of people with the virus. People vulnerable to the virus were isolated as well. That apparently meant that the bulk of South Korea’s workforce could return to work safely. Page 2 of 3 

As expected countries such as South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore that are focussing their efforts on ensuring people’s health and security are succeeding at protecting their people. A second benefit to protecting people is that through quickly getting people safely back to work these countries are suffering much less economic impact. 

Having taken some time to appreciate your government’s package and actions to date I am left wondering what strategy our country is following: the Italian and western strategy of mitigation or the South Korean and East Asian strategy of virus suppression? 

It seems that your government has chosen a path similar to that of Italy that will soon lead to our health system being overwhelmed and in turn possibly lead to tens of thousands of needless and otherwise avoidable Australian deaths. 

My experience across many fields shows accurate data is the key to making sound decisions and while we acknowledge the initial lack of data, we understand that data is now becoming available. 

My son is a layperson and without medical qualifications yet his basic research alerted me to the dangers we face. Although I was initially blasé, my conversations with him prodded me to investigate further. The emerging data then swung me into realising that my initial response was wrong and that we must prioritise public health and safety as our primary goal. 

I offer you the following articles that illustrate the concepts involved, the lessons that can be learned and provide empirical data. 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Further, I strongly support mobilising our defence forces, and especially its well-trained medics and relocatable hospitals to strengthen virus hot-spots with front-line health care and triage that could ease the coming pressure on hospital emergency departments and Intensive Care Units. 

Finally, I take this opportunity to stress that our country’s future depends on restoring our national productive capacity and economic resilience that have been weakened severely over the last three decades. A second unfortunate result of the political mantra preaching globalisation and interdependence since World War Two has been dependence on foreign nations and corporations. 

I believe that dependency and weakness need to be reversed. We must address this urgently and I am willing to assist in implementing policies based on solid data that will restore the fundamentals that people need to be productive, resilient and secure. 

We remain ready to assist in the immediate and medium terms to bring back Australia. 

Everyday Australians expect our governments to protect us and our economy.

I implore you to change strategy if required based on evaluating the emerging data and to make the hard and possibly initially unpopular decisions. If you do so I am confident that within months the people will appreciate what will come to be seen as you demonstrating strength, leadership and care. 

Yours Faithfully 

Malcolm Roberts

Senator for Queensland

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