During this session with Housing Australia, I call out the lack of transparency and the questionable math behind the home deposit guarantee schemes.
I asked Mr Langford why it took nine weeks to get an answer to a simple question: how many borrowers have exited the scheme? They finally admitted that of the 185,000 guarantees issued since the scheme was launched, over 45,000 have already been discharged.
I’m highly sceptical of their reported “success” rates. They previously claimed that there were only 11 defaults out of 250,000. The actual arrears rate on bank loans is around 1% – 227 times higher than the claimed arrears rate of 0.0044%. Therefore, it’s statistically impossible!
My point is simple: they don’t actually track people once they exit the scheme, so they’re essentially flying blind when it comes to the data.
Despite Minister Ayres’ attempts to paint every exit as a “success story,” the data proves it’s not that simple.
As at the end of December 2025: ❌ 0.3% or 336 of borrowers are 90+ days in arrears, ❌ 0 .8% or 1000 are currently under hardship arrangements and ❌ 347 are in early-stage arrears (30–90 days).
While they boast that many are ahead on payments, I’m concerned about the “cliff” ahead.
When I asked for modelling on what happens to these 95% mortgages if interest rates rise three more times this year, they admitted they have no modelling for that scenario.
Ms Jarman has committed to providing me with a copy of the information guide for first-home buyers. I want to see for myself if it properly warns Australians about the massive risks of a 95% mortgage in a rising-rate environment.
— Senate Estimates | February 2026
Transcript
CHAIR: I’m going to rotate the call. Senator Roberts.
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you, Chair. Thank you for appearing again today, Mr Langford. You undertook at the last hearings to answer on notice how many borrowers under your two and five per cent deposit guarantee scheme have exited since the program started. That was question on notice 458. That should be a number you have to hand very easily. You haven’t answered it in the nine weeks since the hearing. Why not?
Mr Langford: I’ll ask my colleague Ms Jarman, who has just come to the table, if we have that information to hand. As to the delays, we apologise. There may have been some delay if we didn’t have that information to hand.
Ms Jarman: Sorry, Senator—can you repeat exactly what information you’re after?
Senator ROBERTS: You undertook at the last hearings to answer on notice how many borrowers under your two per cent and five per cent deposit guarantee scheme have exited since the program started. That was question on notice 458. I’d like the number, please.
Ms Jarman: Yes, we do have the number that have exited. Of the 185,000 guarantees that have been issued since the launch of the scheme, 45,837 of those have discharged.
Senator ROBERTS: You told me at the last hearing that there were only 11 defaults out of 250,000 guarantees issued. The actual arrears rate on banks’ loan books is around one per cent. That’s 227 times higher than your claimed arrears rate of 0.0044 per cent. Do you accept that your number is almost statistically impossible and only appears good because you don’t actually track the people who exit the scheme? Once they’re gone, they’re gone.
Senator Ayres: Exiting is good.
Senator ROBERTS: You don’t track them once they’re gone.
Senator Ayres: These are people who have bought a home—
Senator ROBERTS: Don’t try and change the topic. I’m asking the question. I want to know—
Senator Ayres: under the scheme, then sold their home and moved on to their next home. That is the foot on the ladder that the scheme is designed to provide.
Senator ROBERTS: Minister Ayres, at the last hearing, you said—
Senator Ayres: That’s what it’s for.
Senator ROBERTS: that people who are facing hardship can’t refinance. Do you know that that’s false?
Senator Ayres: What do you mean?
Senator ROBERTS: ‘People who are facing hardship can’t refinance,’ you said. That’s false.
Senator Ayres: I said that people who are facing hardship can’t refinance?
Senator ROBERTS: That’s what you said.
Senator Ayres: I don’t know what context I said that in. You’re moving—
Senator ROBERTS: Can you update me on—
Senator Ayres: from one proposition, demonstrably not the case—
Senator ROBERTS: And you’re changing my proposition. I’m trying to get on with it.
Senator Ayres: which is that it’s a bad outcome.
Senator ROBERTS: Why are you running from this, Minister Ayres?
Senator Ayres: No. I’m running to this. I’m running to this. This is a good outcome.
Senator ROBERTS: You changed my first proposition.
Senator Ayres: This is a good outcome. I’m sorry if you’re confused about it. This is a good outcome for young Australians.
Senator ROBERTS: I think you’re misleading.
Senator Ayres: Buying a home, selling a home, buying a new one—this is a good outcome.
Senator ROBERTS: Can you update me on your latest percentages for in advance, on schedule, in arrears and hardship?
Ms Jarman: I can do that. As at the end of December, 0.3 per cent of the portfolio were 90 days plus in arrears, 0.8 per cent were under hardship arrangements, 26 per cent of the portfolio were on schedule with payments and 73 per cent were in advance of their repayment schedule.
Senator ROBERTS: Do you also have the actual numbers each of these percentages represent?
Ms Jarman: I do.
Senator ROBERTS: Could we have them please?
Ms Jarman: Sure. We had 33,134 on schedule, 93,104 in advance, 336 ninety days in arrears and 1,000 in hardship. There is another category, for completeness. If you’re adding up to the total number of guarantees, in arrears of 30 to 90 days—so early arrears—there are another 347 customers there.
Senator ROBERTS: How many total guarantees are those percentages of—is it less than the 250,000?
Ms Jarman: The 250,000 is the number of Australians supported under the scheme. We’ve only ever issued 185,000 guarantees, but only 127,000 of those are active in the book at the moment. The rest of those have already discharged out of the scheme.
Mr Rimmer: I gave evidence earlier in the day that the 0.3 per cent 90-day arrears rate is better than the other relevant arrears.
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you. I heard that.
Senator Ayres: I also should have said, Senator, again for the sake of completeness, that people exit the scheme if they sell their home. They also exit the scheme when they hit the 80 per cent loan-to-value ratio. That is, they come in at five per cent and make repayments that pay the 15 per cent gap over time, and then they’re considered to have exited the scheme. That’s also a good thing.
Senator ROBERTS: How many five per cent mortgages that you got first home buyers into do you expect a default if interest rates are raised three times this year?
Senator Ayres: Your One Nation colleague asked the same questions about an hour and three-quarters ago.
Senator ROBERTS: He actually said ‘if we are entering a cycle’. I want to know what would happen with three interest rate rises.
Mr Langford: I don’t believe we have modelling for that proposition that you’re putting forward.
Senator ROBERTS: Do you, as the administrator of the five per cent deposit guarantee, provide first home buyers with any warnings about the risk of a 95 per cent mortgage?
Ms Jarman: Yes, we do. As part of the application process, we’ve got an information guide. That guide clearly outlines what the guarantee is and how the guarantee is there to protect the lender and not the borrower. It also outlines the obligations of the borrower in terms of repayment of the mortgage and the circumstances in which the borrower is still liable.
Senator ROBERTS: Could I have a copy of that on notice, please?







